🌊 Global Ocean Freight Market Trends – Late May 2025

As of late May 2025, the global ocean freight market is experiencing significant volatility and upward pressure on rates—despite it traditionally being a slow season. Capacity constraints, geopolitical disruptions, and early peak season demand are contributing to a “non-traditional surge” in container freight activity.

📈 Freight Rates Soar Across Major Trade Lanes

According to Jiemian News, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged to 2,305.79 points on May 10, marking an 18.8% weekly increase, and more than 130% year-over-year.

• Europe-bound rates rose by 24.7% week-over-week.

• Mediterranean lanes saw a 21% jump.

• US West Coast and East Coast rates increased by 22.0% and 19.3%, respectively.

• The South America lane skyrocketed to $5,461 per TEU, up nearly 96% from late March (STCN).

🚢 Tight Capacity and Container Shortages

One of the core drivers of the current freight hike is vessel re-routing caused by the ongoing Red Sea crisis, which forces ships to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant transit time and reducing available capacity. According to Maersk, up to 20% of capacity on Asia-Europe routes has been removed due to extended voyage times.

In addition, blank sailings have surged. C.H. Robinson reports that:

• West Coast shipping capacity has been cut by 30%.

• East Coast capacity has been reduced by 40%.

• Blank sailing levels for May–June: 41% to the US East Coast, 18% to the West Coast.

Container imbalances have also resurfaced, as boxes pile up in ports without being returned fast enough, worsening equipment availability and driving up leasing rates.

🌍 Geopolitical & Regulatory Factors Disrupting Supply Chains

Beyond the Red Sea tensions, the EU maritime fuel regulations introduced in January 2025 are further pressuring the cost structure. Vessels not compliant with the new environmental rules face penalties, which are ultimately passed on to shippers.

Simultaneously, a significant trade policy shift in the US-China relationship is impacting volumes. In May 2025, the US reduced tariffs on many Chinese goods (from 145% to 30%) and implemented a 90-day grace period. This triggered a 275% surge in bookings from China to the US (Investopedia).

🔄 Restructuring of Shipping Alliances

The 2025 alliance realignments are also reshaping global shipping dynamics. The three major alliances are now:

• Gemini Alliance: Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd

• Ocean Alliance: CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, and OOCL

• Premier Alliance: HMM, ONE, and Yang Ming

MSC has opted for independent operations, further intensifying competition and altering trade lane scheduling (Oceanview Line).

🔮 Future Outlook

Experts predict that current capacity tightness and rate volatility may persist through Q3 2025. The typical peak season appears to be arriving early this year, supported by restocking trends and a potential demand rebound from Europe and North America.

According to Sina Finance, importers are expected to front-load shipments in anticipation of further tariff reviews and fuel surcharge adjustments (Sina News).

✅ Summary for Freight Forwarders & Exporters

If you're engaged in international trade or logistics, now is the time to:

• Secure bookings at least 2–3 weeks in advance.

• Monitor geopolitical developments closely.

• Communicate with carriers about blank sailings and container availability.

• Review freight contracts and consider rate hedging options for Q3.